Risk assessment in the mineral industries through copulas
Aldin Ardian (a*,b), Enzo Angeles Pasco (a), Mustafa Kumral (a)
a) McGill University, department of mining and materials engineering, 3450 rue University, Montreal, Quebec H3A 0E8, Canada.
*aldin.ardian[at]mail.mcgill.ca
b) Universitas Pembangunan Nasional "Veteran" Yogyakarta, department of mining engineering, jalan Ring Road Utara, Yogyakarta 55283, Indonesia.
Abstract
Mining industries face uncertainties over time, including in the gold mining. The uncertainty in the gold mining project is most likely due to the financial risk (i.e., prices). The gold price fluctuation in the industry may shape the industry characteristic, either risky or not. Moreover, the gold prices are hard to predict, decision makers are suggested to quantify the project risk in advance. In this paper, the risk is quantified by correlation analysis, Copula method. Copula is a powerful tool to describe not only linear, but also non-linear correlation between random variables. In addition, the Monte-Carlo simulation – a popular and standard approach to assess the risk – is incorporated in the Copula. This approach is straightforward, fast, and applicable for different project or country. A case study is performed to make the approach more clear.
Keywords: Risk assessment, risk quantification, uncertainty, copula, mining industry
Topic: Mining and Metallurgy Engineering