System Dynamic Models of the Value of Environmental Losses from Conversion of Paddy Fields
Ihsan Wira Senjaya (a*), Sunarsih (b)
a) Master Program of Environmental Science, School of Postgraduate Studies, Diponegoro University, Semarang - Indonesia
Jalan Imam Bardjo SH No. 5, Semarang, Indonesia
*matematison[at]gmail.com
b) Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Diponegoro University, Semarang - Indonesia
Jalan Prof. H. Soedarto S.H, Tembalang, Semarang 50275, Indonesia
Abstract
Paddy fields are the main resource in fulfilling the main food commodities, namely rice in Indonesia. Conversion of paddy fields continues to occur along with the increase in population that requires settlements. Loss of paddy fields will have an impact on the loss of the value of rice production per hectare. In addition, there is a value of environmental services from paddy fields that we ignore. Some of the value of environmental services from paddy fields are flood control, supporting food security and preventing erosion and sedimentation. This study aims to determine the value of environmental losses from the loss of paddy fields in Magelang Regency which involves the value of the benefits of paddy fields environmental services through a system Dynamic approaches The law enforcement scenario to reduce conversion of paddy fields was expected to reduce the value of these losses. Simulation data were compared with real data for the last five years from 2013-2017 (Central Bureau of Statistics of Magelang Regency) and had values that were close enough to actual data with errors of less than 10%. The simulation results showed that the value of environmental losses in 2030 reached 173 billion rupiah by conversion of paddy fields about 2981.47 ha.
Keywords: System Dynamic; Paddy Field; Environmental Losses
Topic: FOOD SAFETY AND SECURITY