Comparison of Suspended Particulate Matter Prediction Based on Linear and Nonlinear Models
Sri Sumiyati, Budi Warsito
Diponegoro University
Abstract
Air pollution has been a serious problem in recent years. Air pollutants consist of gaseous pollutants, odours, and suspended particulate matter (SPM) such as dust, fumes, mist, and smoke. SPM has the potential to cause environmental and health problems. With the aim to anticipate the impact, SPM prediction from time to time is needed. In this research, we compared four models for predicting the SPM data. The two linear models selected were ARIMA and wavelet whereas the two nonlinear models were neural networks based models, i.e. General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) and Cascade Forward Neural Network (CFNN). All four models are built with the same input, which were the past data at the same lagged time based on the best ARIMA model. By using lagged time data as input, the goal is to predict the current of SPM data. Model accuracy is measured based on MSE values, both in training and testing data. Data processing has provided interesting results that show the superiority of nonlinear models over linear models, especially in the training data.
Keywords: air pollution, SPM, ARIMA, neural network
Topic: Environment, Health, and Safety