ANALYSIS OF EXTREME RAINFALL AND RELATIONSHIP WITH EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) IN EAST KALIMANTAN
Idris Mandang(a*), Rahmiati(a), Hana Yulinda(a)
a) Department of Geophysics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences Mulawarman University
* idris[at]fmipa.unmul.ac.id
Abstract
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been related to climate anomalies throughout the world including East Kalimantan-Indonesia. Extreme rainfall is one of climate anomalies that related by ENSO. This research was analysis extreme rainfall and relationship with ENSO in East Kalimantan. The data set in this research start from 1986 to 2012 but some of stations only have data set from 1993-2012 and 1999-2012. The Correlation analysis and Gumbel are methods that use in this research. Gumbel is distribution method that can be used to predicted flood and the other disaster. Two, five, ten, twenty five, fifty and one hundred years return period for extreme monthly rainfall maximum can be found using the Gumbel Method. The largest rainfall values of two years return period obtained from sta-24 (535,07 mm), five years from sta-2 (788,84 mm), ten years from sta-7 (986,84 mm), twenty five years from sta-2 (1321,65mm), fifty years from sta-2 (1570,00 mm), and one hundred years from sta-2 (1816,51 mm). For the correlation analysis, most of stations were found positive correlation between Monthly rainfall and Southern Oscillation Index. The highest of coefficient correlation is 0,4 (21,4% from all of station). The other stations have correlation coefficient 0,3 (21,4%), 0,2 (32,1%) and less than 0,2 only 21% from all of stations. The result shows that generally rainfall in East Kalimantan related by ENSO.
Keywords: Extreme Rainfall, ENSO, SOI, Gumbel Method, Correlation Analysis.
Topic: Coastal and Ocean Dynamics