FORECASTING OF CHILI PRICES IN THE SPECIAL REGION OF YOGYAKARTA BASED PRICES ON HARGA PANGAN APPLICATIONS (ARIMA APPROACH)
Liana Fatma Leslie Pratiwi*, Ali Hasyim Al Rosyid

Agribusiness Department, Faculty of Agriculture, Universitas Pembangunan Nasional "Veteran" Yogyakarta
*lianafatmaleslie[at]upnyk.ac.id

Abstract

The price of chili has characteristics that are unstable and fluctuating, this causes stakeholders difficulty in making decisions about the price of chili. The scarcity of chili production causes demand to increase so that the price of chili also rises. Information is needed regarding the predicted fluctuations in chili price trends so that market demand for chili can be known. The purpose of this research is to create a model and predicted the price of large red chili and curly red chili. This research was conducted using time series data price of large red chili and curly red chili during 40 periods starting from July 2016 up to October 2019 to predict of large price red chili and curly red chili for 12 the next periods began November 2019 and ended on October 2020. The data was obtained from Harga Pangan PIHPS (Pusat Informasi Harga Pangan Strategis) National Bank Indonesia application using the price of chili in the Special Region of Yogyakarta. The results of the forecasting model using ARIMA shows that the price of large red chili and curly red chili for 12 periods has increased gradually and forecasting results close to the actual data.

Keywords: ARIMA, Chili prices, forecasting, Yogyakarta

Topic: Economics, Social and Business

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract-plain/M2LbKEw38PDn

Web Format | Corresponding Author (Liana Fatma Leslie Pratiwi)