Prediction And Mitigation Of Ship Accidents Mortality In Indonesia
Agung Budi Arnanto, Athor Subroto
Student Of Dual Degree Program, Master Of Management Indonesia University and MBA Grenoble University
Abstract
The shipping industry is known to have high potential or risk associated with safety. From ship accident data that happened in Indonesia from 2005 until 2018, based on the data taken from National Transportation Safety Comittee (NTSC), this study develops a regression model to predict the probability of fatal shipping accidents and corresponding mortalities. A model for decision making methods with a decision tree and scatter plot will also be created. The model results show that both the fatal accidents and mortalities are mainly caused by technical and human factors, and only a few accidents occur in the waters caused by weathers. In addition, the number of ship accidents has increased in the past 7 years. The biggest portion of ship accidents is occupied by passenger ships. As a consequence of the island nation where transportation of people from island to island has high traffic. Following is the cargo type ship due to the inter-island shipping traffic for logistic distribution also has high traffic. Mostly the ship accident occured in Java Sea and Bangka Strait. The results of this study are beneficial for policy-makers in proposing efficient strategies to prevent fatal shipping accidents, also for ship owner, operator and insurance institution.
Keywords: Ship accident, mortality, severity, decision tree, scatter plot
Topic: Strategic Management, Entrepreneurship and Contemporary Issues