Analysis Of Forecasting Methods Comparation For Predicting Medicine Needs With Arima And Single Exponential Smoothing Methods
Ilan Aliansi Zahra, Yeffry Handoko Putra.
Universitas Komputer Indonesia
Abstract
The availability of medicines is the main thing in a health service. Fluctuations in the use of medicines that occur every year are an obstacle to the medicine warehouse in planning procurement in hospitals. Forecasting is an important tool in making plans for every organization and agency that needs it. It is important for hospitals to plan medicine supplies to overcome problems related to the availability of medical devices and medicines. The purpose of this study is to predict the need for medicines by using forecasting techniques and calculating the value of the Economic Order Quantity. A forecasting or strict forecasting is needed, to predict medicine needs in the future. The method used in this research is Arima time series forecasting for the prediction process and EOQ calculation. The results of this study in the form of the forecasting value of medicine needs for one future period is shown by the smallest forecasting model error value, namely ARIMA (1.0.0) with an error value of 13%, and the calculation results of the Economic Order Quantity for medicine needs in the coming period.
Keywords: Forecasting, time series, medicine need, Economic Order Quantity, ARIMA, Exponential Smoothing
Topic: Informatic and Information System