The probability analysis of coffee sales using Markov theory
I.Made Aryantha Anthara & Enrico Salim
Industrial Engineering Departement
Universitas Komputer Indonesia
Abstract
This research is motivated by the phenomenon of selling three brands of coffee in one of the stalls in the Garut area. The purpose of this research is to find out the opportunity to move from a coffee brand to another coffee brand within a certain period of time and then make a prediction of the chances of further coffee transfer until the steady state condition is obtained. The method to be used in this study is Markov Theory in which the time span used is the number of sales of each brand of coffee within two months. From the observations, there are three coffee brands that are most in demand by consumers, namely ABC coffee, White Luwak Coffee and Kapal Api Mix coffee. From the results of the analysis carried out, steady state conditions from the sale of the three coffee brands were obtained at the sixth month with sales probability values for ABC coffee, White Luwak coffee and Kapal Api Mix coffee each 31.28 %, 21.66% and 47.06%. If seen from the results of the research that has been obtained, it can be concluded that the probability of selling the three coffee brands is quite even and this can be a consideration for sellers to be able to supply the three coffee brands more than the other brands so will increase the sales of the three coffee brands
Keywords: Markov Theory, Probability Matriks, Steady State
Topic: Industrial Engineering