Import demand strategy for economic growth in declining foreign exchange reserves: ASEAN countries cases
Sri Indah Nikensari
Universitas Negeri Jakarta
Abstract
The trade war between the US and China inspired other countries to adopt a more protective international trade strategy, especially in conditions of a trade balance deficit. This research has two objectives, first to find out which factors are more influential on import activities in ASEAN countries, between the need to increase economic growth, the availability of foreign exchange reserves, population needs, or inflation that occurs within the country. The second goal is to formulate a strategy that should be done in relation to the first goal. To answer this question, the panel data regression equation analysis is used, from 10 ASEAN countries with the 2011-2017 data year. The results show that last years GDP and foreign exchange reserve ownership (FER) had a very significant effect (sig. <5%) on import demand, while other factors were less significant. Because FER has a greater influence than GDP on import demand, the protective import strategy should be implemented as done by United State.
Keywords: Imports demand; international trade; GDP; forex reserve; imports strategy
Topic: Economics