Analyzing Impact of Renewable Energy Directive (RED) Policy on Crude Palm Oil (CPO) Export and Forecasting CPO Export from Indonesia to European Union (EU) for 2019-2020 Using ARIMA Intervention Analysis
Anni Syahdia Nasution (a*), Ika Yuni Wulansari (b)
a) Politeknik Statistika STIS, Jalan Otto Iskandardinata No. 64C, Jakarta Timur 13330, Indonesia
*14.7996[at]stis.ac.id
b) Politeknik Statistika STIS, Jalan Otto Iskandardinata No. 64C, Jakarta Timur 13330, Indonesia
ORCID: 0000-0002-8649-1626
Abstract
The implementation of Renewable Energy Directive (RED) policy on April 2009 by European Union(EU) received several responses from many countries, due to create non tariff barrier in international trade. RED(2009/28/EC) established an overall policy for the production and promotion of energy from renewable sources in the EU. It requires the EU to fulfil at least 20% of its total energy needs with renewables by 2020. One of the countries affected by RED policy is Indonesia. The EU includes Crude Palm Oil (CPO) as a nonenvironmentally friendly product on its RED. After this policy was set, Indonesia CPO exports to the EU fell from 275.162,425 metric tons(MT) to 236.653,661MT and the next month just 896,876 MT. This research purposes to analyze RED policy and its duration impact on Indonesias CPO exports. This research uses ARIMA Intervention to analyze monthly data of Indonesias CPO exports from January 2002 to December 2018 (before and after policy implementation) and forecast CPO export from Indonesia to EU for 2019 until 2020. It is obtained that RED policy gave an impact on declining of Indonesias CPO exports to the EU only two month after the policy was set. RED policy has a temporary effect because the government moves quickly to divert CPO export market to Asia region. Forecasting results show the volume of Indonesias CPO exports to the EU from January 2019 to 2020 will experience an upward trend. The lowest volume is in January 2020 (298.527MT) and the highest is in August 2020 (330.063MT)
Keywords: Renewable Energy Directive (RED), CPO, European Union, Indonesia, ARIMA Intervention
Topic: Trade policies strategic Responses