PENERAPAN ALTMAN REVISED Z-SCORE EMPAT VARIABEL DAN OHLSON O-SCORE SEBAGAI ALAT PREDIKSI KEBANGKRUTAN PADA SEGMEN USAHA KECIL DAN MENENGAH DI INDONESIA (STUDI KASUS BANK MANDIRI PERIODE 2014-2018)
Adhy Pramudita
University of Indonesia
Abstract
Nowdays, small and medium enterprises continue to grow in Indonesia, contributing more than one fifth of Indonesias Gross Domestic Product, making this segment very potential to continue to be developed. Domestic and foreign banks see this small and medium business segment as a promising segment, making the majority of banks in Indonesia compete in lending to this segment. However, amid a promising prospect, this segment also has its own challenges, where the national-s ratio of non-performing loans in this segment exceeds the ratio of non-performing loans of all loans disbursed. This study aims to assess the reliability of the Altman Z-Score and Ohlson O-Score methods as bankruptcy predictor in Small Medium Enterprise segment in Indonesia and the reliability of the companys financial statements in the Small Medium Enterprise segment in reflecting the companys real conditions as input data to analyze the possibility of the company going bankrupt. This research uses financial report data from companies that are debtors in the Small Medium Enterprise segment at Bank Mandiri. The results showed that the Z-Score calculation was able to predict bankruptcy with an accuracy of 51.8%, 37.4%, 36.3%, and 11.4% for one, two, three and four years before bankruptcy while Ohlson O-Score giving better accuracy results of 73.6%, 43.2%, and 58.5% for one, two and three years before bankruptcy. Based on these results and interviews with internal parties of the Bank it can be concluded that financial statements for Small Medium Enterprise segment companies in general have not been reliable enough to reflect the companys condition in real.
Keywords: Bankruptcy Prediction, Z-Score, O-Score, Small Medium Enterprise
Topic: Financial Management and Accounting