Policy model on the production and availability of rice in Magelang Regency
Ihsan Wira Senjaya (a*), Sunarsih (b)
a) Master Program of Environmental Science, School of Postgraduate Studies, Diponegoro University, Semarang - Indonesia
Jalan Imam Bardjo SH No. 5, Semarang, Indonesia
*matematison[at]gmail.com
b) Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Diponegoro University, Semarang - Indonesia
Jalan Prof. H. Soedarto S.H, Tembalang, Semarang 50275, Indonesia
Abstract
Magelang Regency is one of the national rice providers. As a National rice provider, the availability of rice need to be maintained sustainably in order to meet the needs of Magelang Regency and Surrounding area. As the main source of rice production, paddy fields must be protected from the conversion of built-up land such as settlements, tourism sites and others. local governments need to design policies that ensure the availability of surplus rice. This study aims to measure the impact of production policy scenarios and the application of law in Magelang Regency to protect the availability of surplus rice using system dynamic approaches. The scenarios that developed were law enforcement to decrease conversion of paddy fields and increased crop indexes to increase rice production, so increased the availability of rice as well. Simulation data were compared with the real data of the last five years from 2013-2017 (Central Bureau of Statistics of Magelang Regency) and had values that did not differ greatly from the actual data with errors of less than 10%. The simulation results showed that the first scenario could meet the needs of 216.6% rice with a surplus of 133,509.52 tons and the second scenario met 229.5% of the rice needs with a surplus of 148,257.43 tons.
Keywords: System Dynamic; Paddy Field; Rice; Scenario
Topic: FOOD SAFETY AND SECURITY