Uncertainty Analysis of Cycle Time using Monte Carlo Method and Fuzzy Number Operation
L E Widodo
Research Group on Earth Resources Exploration,
Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Bandung Institute of Technolgy, Bandung, Indonesia
Abstract
The cycle time in mining activities is the time needed by a mining equipment or a combination of several mining equipments to complete one or one series of several particular jobs or tasks. The cycle time in some cases will never be constant but follows a certain distribution with an average and certain standard deviation of time. This is due to the fact that each mining equipment and / or each component of the work varies in time to complet the task. The cycle time of some mining equipments and / or some components of work is basically an arithmetic operation of the variation of cycle time of each individual mining equipment with its individual distribution. Arithmetic operation of several data distributions can be done stochastically by using Monte Carlo method or method with fuzzy number operation. This paper will briefly describe the uncertainty analysis of cycle time using both methods and finally comparing the results of both.
Keywords: Cycle Time, Monte Carlo Method, Random Number, Fuzzy Number Operation
Topic: Mining and Metallurgy Engineering