MORES 2019 Conference

A dynamic modeling approach to estimate Disease Burden of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever Associated with Climate Change in Jakarta, Indonesia
Ibnu Susanto Joyosemito1 Narila Mutia Nasir2,*, Akihiro Tokai3

1 University of Bhayangkara Jakarta Raya, Faculty of Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Jakarta, Indonesia
2 Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Public health, Jakarta, Indonesia
3Osaka University, Graduate School of Engineering, Division of Sustainable Energy and Environmental Engineering, Osaka, Japan
*Corresponding author: narilamutia[at]


Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) is continued to be a burden of disease in Indonesia, particularly in Jakarta region. The change of climate condition is one factor that affect the occurrence of DHF. The objective of this study is to develop a dynamic model, estimate the cases of DHF using climate factor and calculate the burden of DHF utilizing single measure outcome, Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY) in Jakarta. The actual data of temperature, relative humidity, rainfall and DHF cases from January 2000 to December 2013 were analyzed. We projected the DHF Incidences until 2050 using those climate factors by developing a dynamic model. We then calculate the burden of disease for DHF. Our result shows that relative humidity is climate factore which has the significant association with the DHF cases. In our model, the incidence rate of DHF is projecting to decrease until 2050. However, the burden of disease in the terms of DALY remains high in the period. It is expected that the model can assist the risk management for the DHF prevention from the environmental perspective. It is also possible to apply the model for measuring the burden of disease related to climate factor in other location.

Keywords: Climate change, health security, burden of disease, dengue, DALY

Topic: Biomedical and Health Technology


Web Format | Corresponding Author (Ibnu Susanto Joyosemito)