Indonesia Conference Directory

Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) is continued to be a burden of disease in Indonesia, particularly in Jakarta region. The change of climate condition is one factor that affect the occurrence of DHF. The objective of this study is to develop a dynamic model, estimate the cases of DHF using climate factor and calculate the burden of DHF utilizing single measure outcome, Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY) in Jakarta. The actual data of temperature, relative humidity, rainfall and DHF cases from January 2000 to December 2013 were analyzed. We projected the DHF Incidences until 2050 using those climate factors by developing a dynamic model. We then calculate the burden of disease for DHF. Our result shows that relative humidity is climate factore which has the significant association with the DHF cases. In our model, the incidence rate of DHF is projecting to decrease until 2050. However, the burden of disease in the terms of DALY remains high in the period. It is expected that the model can assist the risk management for the DHF prevention from the environmental perspective. It is also possible to apply the model for measuring the burden of disease related to climate factor in other location.