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Multi-Variable Forecasting Model Using ARIMA (P,Q,N) Method To Project Number of Population in Bandung Regency
Erlangga Bayu Setyawan (a*), Nia Novitasari (b*), Prafajar Suksessanno Muttaqin (c*)

a) School of Industrial and System Engineering, Bandung Telkom University,
Telekommunication St. No.1, Bandung 40257, Indonesia
*erlanggabs[at]telkomuniversity.ac.id

b) School of Industrial and System Engineering, Bandung Telkom University,
Telekommunication St. No.1, Bandung 40257, Indonesia
*novitasarinia[at]telkomuniversity.ac.id

c) School of Industrial and System Engineering, Bandung Telkom University,
Telekommunication St. No.1, Bandung 40257, Indonesia
*prafajars[at]telkomuniversity.ac.id


Abstract

The focus of this research is to doing analysis and study of public cemeteries as supporters of green space in Bandung regency for 2018 until 2028 period with the aim to determine number of population in Bandung Regency with considering total population, population growth rate, and mortality rate. The method used in this study is ARIMA (P, Q, N). Based on the results of the analysis and study of public cemeteries (TPU) as supporters of Green Open Space in the Bandung Regency area for the period 2018 to 2028, state that cemetery conditions in Bandung Regency require new burial sites. This is evidenced by the results of forecasting (forecasting) of the population per district in Bandung Regency from 2019 to 2028. In making forecasting there are special cases in certain districts. For example, Kutawaringin District can only be forecasted within the next 5 years, because Kutawaringin District is a new subdistrict since 2008, so more historical data is needed to obtain forecasting results over a 10-year period. Based on the conclusions obtained, the authors suggest the Department of Housing and Land Service District Government Bandung Regency to conduct further research, namely the determination of the optimal number of funerals and graves in Bandung district

Keywords: Forecasting, Operation Research, ARIMA

Topic: Industrial Engineering

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/2PCwXH3ZMKDt

Conference: The Third International Conference on Innovation in Engineering and Vocational Education (ICIEVE 2019)

Plain Format | Corresponding Author (Erlangga Bayu Setyawan)

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