Potential inundation hazard in Southern Java Coast due to climate change and tsunami Karina Aprilia Sujatmiko (a*,b), Dominic Oki Ismoyo (b), Farrah Hanifah (a), Hamzah Latief (a,b), Rinaldy Oki Setiawan (b)
a) Program Study of Oceanography, Bandung Institute of Technology, Labtek XI, Jl. Ganesha no.10. Bandung, Indonesia. b) Center for Marine and Coastal Development, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Labtek XI, Jl. Ganesha no.10. Bandung, Indonesia *karina.sujatmiko[at]oceanography.itb.ac.id
Abstract
West Java coastal areas are endangered by the slow-onset of global sea level rise and the increasing frequency of coastal hazard such as storm surge and coastal flood due to climate change. Located near the subduction zone of Eurasia and Indo-Australia plate, West Java also faced rapid onset disaster such as tsunami especially in the southern coast. Physical vulnerability has implications for socio-economic, infrastructure, and ecosystem conditions of the coastal zones. Therefore, it is substantial to conduct a coastal vulnerability assessment and provide a relevant GIS map. This assessment strengthened by extensive surveys along the coast of West Java and interviews with the local communities. This study discussed potential inundation hazard in the future caused by climate induced hazard in regard with oceanographic parameters such as ENSO, MJO and IOD and local tidal height. Based on recording data and projection it is found that the contribution of La Niña variation as much as 21.7 cm, MJO 24.3 cm, Indian Ocean Dipole mode 16 cm, maximum tidal height is 95.77 cm, global sea level rise projection 0.7 cm/year and increased storm surge up to 150 cm. Using tsunami model for the 100-year return period, the expected tsunami height ranges from 2 to 7 m. A hazard map is developed using a simple analytical model representing occurrence of cumulative hazards of flooding or inundation that could occur in coastal areas according to a scenario of condition. There are selected 10 hazard scenarios based on the combination of hazard elements developed for 2020 - 2050 projection. The extreme climate induced hazard inundation is gained when all parameters, except tsunami, are occurred in conjunction which resulted in extreme height of 334.5 cm in year 2050. While, the combination of climate and tectonic induced hazard inundation resulted in extreme height of 779,6 cm in year 2050. The detailed of inundation potential hazard is then presented into maps by using Geographic Information systems (GIS) and elevation model of Southern coast of West Java.
If your conference is listed in our system, please put our logo somewhere in your website.
Simply copy-paste the HTML code below to your website (ask your web admin):