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This paper interested in flood events forecast by applying Mamdani fuzzy inference system and rule-based reasoning. For input and output linguistic variable of the model based on three variables such as population density, altitude, and rainfall. Each variable has three to four membership functions. The data used come from Statistic Bureau of Indonesia, National Disaster Management Authority, and Meteorology and Climatology Center of Indonesia for 2014 to present. A different model for each region was constructed depending on available data sets. We determine based our model on fourty eight fuzzy IF-THEN rules and fuzzy reasoning. The output variable which has three membership function takes from 220 to 402 as representative flooding level warning such as normal, alert, and danger. The results are in high agreements with recorded data on site with increases in output values toward the real-time flood events.