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Rice is the main staple food in Indonesia that has the four largest population in the world. East Java is one of the largest rice producing centres in Indonesia and many other regions such as Papua, Kalimantan, NTT, Sumatra, DKI, and Yogyakarta depend on its supply of rice. The contribution of rice from East Java to other provinces is 17.1% and there is a decline every year while the consumption of rice is increasing every year. How the sustainability of the East Java rice supply in the future needs to be known to policyholders so that there will not be a crisis of rice shortages so that the understanding of Indonesian food becomes disturbed. The purpose of this paper is to develop a system dynamic (SD) model for estimation of East Javas rice contributions to Indonesian food security. An integrated system dynamics simulation model was developed using a system dynamics modelling approach to examine the interaction and feedback processes between the production per year, paddy planting area, consumption per year, agricultural production sub-sectors and population subsectors. The objective of the model is to provide a learning tool to understanding of the long-term dynamic behaviour of the rice production, and as a decision support tool for exploring plausible policy scenarios necessary to make East Java readiness on achieving the target as “Lumbung Padi Nasional”. Managing the agricultural development, providing the structural and behavioural pattern tests, and doing the statistical test to evaluate and validate the performance of the model. The results showed that the simulated outputs represent the real system. Three additional scenarios were simulated. (scenario 1) expanding rice field area, (scenario 2) improving the intensification and there should be additional support to farmers through provision of agricultural inputs such as seeds, fertilizers and pesticides and be given sufficient training to best apply these input and (Scenario 3) increasing the amount of infrastructure in order to distribute more supply.