FORECASTING OF RAW MATERIAL PURCHASING QUANTITY FOR APPLE JUICE DRINK PRODUCTION IN PT XYZ MALANG Azimmatul Ihwah, Ulayya Hanan Viandini
Dept. of Agroindustrial Technology, Faculty of Agricultural Technology, Universitas Brawijaya
Abstract
Batu City is a city that has abundant agricultural products. One of the abundant fruits in Batu City is apples. Apple juice drink is a fruit juice drink prepared from apples with the addition of sugar and citric acid. One producer of apple cider is PT. XYZ who is in Batu City. Production process has strongly related to the needs of raw materials. Raw materials are the main factors that support the smooth and effective production process of a company. The planning activity for raw material requirements can be applied if future sales projections have been obtained. In this case forecasting future demand needs to be done. The aimed of this study was to forecast the quantity of purchasing apple ‘manalagi- as the main raw material. The forecasting study was done for January to December 2019. From the time series plot, it was known that the data for purchasing raw materials for apples was seasonal. The data was transformed twice to fulfill stationary assumptions. The best SARIMA model was obtained (1,1,0) (1,1,1)2 with the Mean Square Error of 0,0106901. From the results of forecasting for 2019, it was found that the highest in June was 87,950.2 kg and the lowest in January was 249.3 kg and the average purchase of raw materials per month in 2019 was 9,786.1 kg. This is because the level of demand from consumers has increased dramatically during the Eid season or celebration season, namely in June.
Keywords: apple, juice drink,forecasting, seasonal, sarima
Topic: AGROINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION SYSTEM MANAGEMENT AND REGULATION
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