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Over the past several five (5) years, a series of refinery unplanned shutdowns was highlighted as headlines in many Indonesian chronicles. The unplanned shutdowns apparently and obviously led to divers array of questions. One of the questions is whether or not the latest and most advance technology is applied that might cause a temporary disruption of oil supply. Furthermore, other questions the human resources. Are they readily adaptable to the fast-paced changing industrial environment? Is the performance of the past contribute to the discovery of overlooked information. Last but not least, the expectation for the management to fully execute a sound strategic business plan. This particular study is approached by using the qualitative non-linear multivariable regression in order to incorporate a number of different categorical variables. In addition, each variable will be analyzed as for the significant contribution to the unplanned shutdown. The result projected to answer the recurring unplanned shut downs; the using a non-linear multivariable regression that incorporates multivariable should be able to explain the undisclosed conditions. In a nutshell , recommendation for improvement is definitely needed. The past performance should be viewed as a lesson learnt for predicting the future operational success.