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WTO EXPORT RESTRICTION OF AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES AND ITS IMPACTS FOR G-33 MEMBERS
Steven Raja Ingot (a*), Dian V. Panjaitan (b), Arie Mardiansyah (3)

a) Trade Analysis and Development Agency
b) IPB University
c) Trade Analysis and Development Agency


Abstract

The discussion of agricultural Export Restriction (ER) at the World Trade Organization (WTO), which is a mechanism to temporarily stop the export of agricultural product that aims to prevent food shortages in exporting countries currently negotiated intensively. However, as a net importer of agricultural products and the member of G33 countries, Indonesia should address the ER policy because it has the potential to increase prices and threaten food security in G33 member countries. This study uses a descriptive qualitative statistical to determine Import Dependency Ratio (IDR) and Self-Sufficiency Ratio (SSR) for five imported main agricultural products by G33 countries such as rice, corn, soybean, wheat, and horticulture then using CGE Analysis using GTAP ver.9 to analyze the impact of agricultural product export restrictions on macroeconomic and sectoral indicators. Based on IDR and SSR it can be concluded that almost all G33 countries rely heavily on wheat imports, as many as 36 countries depend on imported wheat with IDR values varying between 70% - 215%. On the other hand, several G-33 countries have a fairly good level of fulfillment of consumption from domestic production (SSR) / more than 80%. Moreover, based on the GTAP calculation on the Indonesia case, export restrictions will have a negative macroeconomic impact on Indonesia. However, sectorally Indonesian farmers/producers can take advantage of the impact of the export restriction policy as an opportunity to increase production.

Keywords: export restriction, CGE, self sufficiency, import dependency

Topic: Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/gF9KNnp7zTYa

Conference: The 3rd International Conference on Trade (ICOT 2019)

Plain Format | Corresponding Author (Steven Raja Ingot)

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