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Bantul Regency is a rice barn area for the Special Province of Yogyakarta. For a long time, this regency has been self-sufficient in rice. In the last five years, the conversion of irrigated rice fields has changed to become settlements at the rate of 81.2 ha a year as a result of the population growth rate of 2.04% a year. The study aims to determine the contribution of irrigated land in maintaining regional rice self-sufficiency. The analytical methodology used applies the quantitative analytical description approach to estimate the rice supply-demand balance position for 2006-2015. The results were applied to predict the balance position for the next 10, 20, 30, 40 and 50 years with 10 scenarios. The results show that this regency has surplus of rice in 2006-2015 with self-sufficiency rate of 1.08-1.28. The scenario simulation results show that the rate of population growth causes the rice deficit to be wider and faster to occur. To prevent the occurrence of the rice deficit, control of land conversion and control of the population must be carried out simultaneously. Land use change also has a high risk for irrigation activities carried out because it causes changes in the water balance, losses to irrigation network infrastructure, lack of water in planting season II and plating season III.