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Abstract Topic: Trade policies strategic Responses

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The Economic Impact of Indonesia-Bangladesh Preferential Trade Agreement (IB PTA)
Devina Cieny Juventia (*), Eka Choirulina, Yucky Anggun Anggrainy

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Corresponding Author
Devina Cieny Juventia

Institutions
Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry Of Trade
*devinacieny[at]gmail.com

Abstract
Indonesia-Bangladesh agreed to make a Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) at the 2017 IORA Summit. Both countries need to see the possibility of this PTA. This study aims to review the economic impact of PTA and arrange indications of requests/offers to be negotiated. The methods used are trade indicators including the trade balance, the main export-import products, Revealed Comparative Advantage, Trade Complementary Index, and Partial Equilibrium to determine the cost and benefits of the agreement. The results of the analysis based on the Partial Equilibrium simulations show that the reciprocal decline in import tariffs between the two countries will increase Indonesias export by USD 286,3 million, meanwhile Indonesias import will increase by USD 79,1 million. Both countries will obtain welfare in the form of consumer surpluses, for Indonesia amounting to USD 5.2 million and Bangladesh USD 12.0 million. Potential loss of Indonesias revenue was due to a reduction in tariffs of USD 6.9 million and potential loss of Bangladeshs revenue of USD 159.2 million. We suggest for the initial stages of trade cooperation between Indonesia and Bangladesh it is suggested in the form of PTA with an indication of Indonesias requests of 145 post tariffs and offers of 180 post tariffs.

Keywords
Partial Equilibrium, PTA, Request/Offer

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/cM6ZvQAhdxXB


The Impact of Aircraft Spare Parts Import Duty Exemption on the MRO Industrys Competitiveness and Its Services Export
Farida Rahmawati*, Choirin Nisaa, Rizka Isditami Syarif, Herindra Adhi Nusantara

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Corresponding Author
Farida Rahmawati

Institutions
Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia
Jl. M. I. Ridwan Rais No. 5, Gambir, Jakarta 10110, Indonesia
*faridarahma13[at]gmail.com

Abstract
Along with the increasing in demand for air travel, growth of airlines and number of flights paths, Indonesias goal to become a maintenance center for large-scale aircraft needs to be supported by a good competitiveness of the airline maintenance industry. This study aims to identify the impact of import duty exemption on aircraft spare parts on the competitiveness and service export of the Aircraft Maintenance, Reparation, and Overhaul (MRO) industry including factors affected MRO competitiveness. In addition, this study aims to identify the problems encountered during the implemention of the policy, the types of aircratf parts to be exempted and the criterias for products to be eligible for exemption from import duties. The research method used in this study are qualitative and quantitative descriptive analysis, Porter five-force model and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). The results of the study showed that the import duty exemption policy increased MRO services from 30 percent to 49 percent during 2013-2017. Constraints in implementation are procedures and differences in customs areas where the longest is for bonded zones. Special customs policies for MROs as well as the exemption of import duties for goods related to MROs which 90 percen originating from imports will greatly encourage competitiveness which relies heavily on aircraft down time. The types of goods that need to be exempted from import dutties are consumable and repairable groups in both new and non-new capital goods categories.

Keywords
MRO, Porters Five Force Model, AHP, import policy

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/a6q8Wt4jPXJH


The Impact of The Export Tax Imposition on Indonesian Cocoa Beans and Cocoa Import Tariff to The Export Volume of Cocoa Beans and Indonesian Processed Cocoa to The Six Main Destination Countries from 2000-2017
Retno Wulansari (a*) and Nasrudin (a)

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Corresponding Author
Retno Wulansari

Institutions
a) Statistics, Politeknik Statistika STIS
Jalan Otto Iskandardinata No.64C 1 4, RT.1/RW.4, Bidara Cina, Jatinegara, Kota Jakarta Timur, Daerah Khusus Ibukota Jakarta 13330, Indonesia
*retnowulansari98[at]gmail.com

Abstract
In the last decade, there has been a shift occurs in the dominance of Indonesian cocoa exports from cocoa beans to processed cocoa. The shifting can be seen from 2010, at the time the government start to apply the export tax of cocoa beans. Free trade policy in ASEAN region has led to free-import tariffs on agricultural commodities as well as cocoa commodity. As a result, there was a decrease in export volume and an increase in the volume of Indonesian cocoa imports. This research aims to analyze the impact of the export tax imposition on cocoa beans and cocoa import tariff on the export volume of cocoa beans, cocoa paste, cocoa butter and cocoa powder. Because of the correlation between equations, the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) method is used. To enrich the analysis, researchers measured the Trade Specialization Index (ISP) and Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of cocoa beans, cocoa paste, cocoa butter and Indonesian cocoa powder. The results of SUR estimation show that the tax export imposition on cocoa beans negatively affects the export volume of Indonesian cocoa beans and positively affects the export volume of Indonesian cocoa paste, cocoa butter and cocoa powder. Cocoa import tariff positively affects on the export volume of cocoa paste, negatively affects on cocoa powder, and not significantly influencing the export of cocoa beans and cocoa butter. Researchers also found that the value of processed cocoa ISP and RSCA increased after the application of tax export of cocoa beans in April 2010. Processed cocoa RSCA values in 2010 averaged 0.56 to 0.7 in 2017, while the average ISP value was 0.76 to 0.78. Therefore, the government must continue to apply the tax export imposition on cocoa beans and imported cocoa tariff to increase the export volume of cocoa paste, cocoa butter and cocoa powder. In addition, the policy can also increase the competitiveness of Indonesian processed cocoa.

Keywords
Export Tax, Import Tariff, ISP, RSCA, SUR

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/npJ6UNrvELAz


The Possibility of Indonesia and United Kingdom to Form Free Trade Agreement After Brexit
Endah Ayu Ningsih (a*), Fithra Faisal Hastiadi (b), Risna Triandhari (b), Leo Mualdy Christoffel (a), Fitri Tri Budiarti (a)

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Corresponding Author
endah ayu ningsih

Institutions
a) Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Indonesia;
(a*) ayuningsih.endah[at]gmail.com
b) Faculty of Economic and Business, University of Indonesia

Abstract
On June 23, 2016 held a referendum which resulted decision that United Kingdom or Britain determined to exit the European Union membership that we call Brexit. The exit of UK will absolutely impact UKs trade with its trading partner including Indonesia. In connection with this issue we conducted a study to evaluate the possibility for trade cooperation between Indonesia and the UK with assumption that UK had officially left the European Union. By having the Game Theory model, the best strategy for Indonesia is by forming FTA with UK. Meanwhile for UK, based on the simulation, the alternative in forming FTA with Indonesia is the dominant strategy with positive output. The trade cooperation implication is not too significant for UK, so to drive the trade cooperation must be initiated from Indonesia.

Keywords
Brexit, Computable General Equilibrium, Free Trade Agreement,Game Theory

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/YpzegxLAMFKU


The Utilization of ASEAN Framework Agreement on Services on Indonesias Retail Services to ASEAN Market
Arie Mardiansyah, Kerub Henpra Gokniel*, Jane Marisi Rapmeriah

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Corresponding Author
Kerub Henpra Gokniel

Institutions
Trade Analysis and Development Agency
kerubgokniel[at]gmail.com

Abstract
The utilization of retail market access in ASEAN as the result of the ASEAN Framework Agreement on Services (AFAS) negotiations is still considered low. Even though Indonesias retail services have potential to expand its business to ASEAN market which its economic growth and population continue to increase. This study used Hoekman Index analysis to see the level of openness of foreign retail services investment in ASEAN countries and SWOT analysis to find the strategies to utilize AFAS in order to increase Indonesias investment on retail industries in ASEAN market. The results of the analysis concluded that the level of investment openness of ASEAN member countries for foreign retail services is relatively open. However, Indonesia is less open than other ASEAN countries. Furthermore, based on EFAS / IFAS Analysis, Indonesias retail service sector has Opportunities and Strength as capital to develop its business in the ASEAN market with a strategy Progressive. As for other alternatives penetration strategies (entry mode) can be done, among others through full investment with foreign ownership of 100% to countries that have been fully open, joint venture, or sell Indonesian retail business master franchise to ASEAN countries, which is the easiest and least risky way.

Keywords
AFAS, SWOT, Hoekman Index

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/9mjHzkFqe2MD


Trade Policy Evaluation on Rubber and Palm Oil
Kumara Jati (a). Arie Mardiansyah (b). Deky Paryadi (c). Muhammad Fawaiq (d). Rino Adi Nugroho (e). Wibowo Kurniawan (f).

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Corresponding Author
Kumara Jati

Institutions
(a)Indonesian Trade Promotion Center-Chennai-India, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia.
kumara_jati[at]yahoo.com

(b)Trade Analysis and Development Agency,
Ministry of Trade, Jakarta, Indonesia,
arie.mardiansyah[at]gmail.com

(c)Trade Analysis and Development Agency,
Ministry of Trade, Jakarta, Indonesia,
deckyparyadi[at]gmail.com

(d)Trade Analysis and Development Agency,
Ministry of Trade, Jakarta, Indonesia,
m.fawaiq[at]kemendag.go.id

(e)Trade Analysis and Development Agency,
Ministry of Trade, Jakarta, Indonesia,
ran.kemendag[at]gmail.com

(f)Trade Analysis and Development Agency,
Ministry of Trade, Jakarta, Indonesia,
halopopo[at]yahoo.com

Abstract
Rubber and palm oil are the two main export commodities that contribute to economic development in Indonesia. Specific trade policy has to be implemented when export commodity prices fluctuating or increasing or decreasing rapidly in the short period of time. This study shows that price movement aspect is very important to evaluate the trade policy. The results of the analysis using Autoregressive and Moving Average and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity/Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARMA-ARCH/GARCH) indicate that past price factors can be used to predict future prices. The Structural Time-Series Model (STSM) shows that the price of rubber and palm oil in 2020 is expected to be relatively stable and increasing. The relevant trade authorities need to maximize the public services related to the price predictions and upcoming policy in order to maintain export stability in the short and long terms so that it can be utilized to the greatest extent possible for development of Indonesia.

Keywords
Trade Policy, Rubber and Palm Oil Price, ARMA-ARCH/GARCH, Structural Time-Series Model (STSM).

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/7gPRXe3CkQ4L


WTO EXPORT RESTRICTION OF AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES AND ITS IMPACTS FOR G-33 MEMBERS
Steven Raja Ingot (a*), Dian V. Panjaitan (b), Arie Mardiansyah (3)

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Corresponding Author
Steven Raja Ingot

Institutions
a) Trade Analysis and Development Agency
b) IPB University
c) Trade Analysis and Development Agency

Abstract
The discussion of agricultural Export Restriction (ER) at the World Trade Organization (WTO), which is a mechanism to temporarily stop the export of agricultural product that aims to prevent food shortages in exporting countries currently negotiated intensively. However, as a net importer of agricultural products and the member of G33 countries, Indonesia should address the ER policy because it has the potential to increase prices and threaten food security in G33 member countries. This study uses a descriptive qualitative statistical to determine Import Dependency Ratio (IDR) and Self-Sufficiency Ratio (SSR) for five imported main agricultural products by G33 countries such as rice, corn, soybean, wheat, and horticulture then using CGE Analysis using GTAP ver.9 to analyze the impact of agricultural product export restrictions on macroeconomic and sectoral indicators. Based on IDR and SSR it can be concluded that almost all G33 countries rely heavily on wheat imports, as many as 36 countries depend on imported wheat with IDR values varying between 70% - 215%. On the other hand, several G-33 countries have a fairly good level of fulfillment of consumption from domestic production (SSR) / more than 80%. Moreover, based on the GTAP calculation on the Indonesia case, export restrictions will have a negative macroeconomic impact on Indonesia. However, sectorally Indonesian farmers/producers can take advantage of the impact of the export restriction policy as an opportunity to increase production.

Keywords
export restriction, CGE, self sufficiency, import dependency

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/gF9KNnp7zTYa


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