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Red chili pepper is an important commodity in Indonesia. Chili for household consumption and industrial raw materials in Indonesia. The phenomenon that occurs is the imbalance between demand and supply and season conditions. This causes imports and price fluctuations. The fluctuation in the price of red chili pepper is one of the causes of inflation. This study analyzes the factors that affect production and demand, as well as the simultaneous influence with price and import factors. Data analysis used the two stage least square method on secondary data from 2002-2013. The research variables are production, land area, chili price, chili price in the previous year, red chili pepper import, population, world chili production, stock and demand for red chili pepper. The results showed that the average value of actual data with prediction data for variable demand for chili, chili production, Indonesian chili prices and chili imports were close to the same so that it could be said that the model used was good and valid with the actual data. The value of R square in the first equation is known as 0.661 which means that predetermined variables can explain endogenous variables of 66.1%. The value of R square in the second equation is known as 0.938 which means that predetermined variables can explain endogenous variables of 93.8%. The value of R square in the third equation is known to be 0.746 which means that predetermined variables can explain endogenous variables of 74.6%. R square value in the fourth equation is known as 0.966 which means that predetermined variables can explain endogenous variables of 96.6%. The demand for red chili pepper is influenced by the population, while the price of red chili pepper and imports do not affect the demand for red chili pepper. Red chili pepper production is influenced by the price of red chili pepper at the producer level and the area of planting. Imports are not affected by world chili production, Indonesian chili production and Indonesian chili prices. At the national chili price, the influencing factor is the price of the previous years chili. While imports and stock of chili in Indonesia does not affect the price of Indonesian chili.