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DETERMINANTS OF MEKAAR-S ULTRAMICRO CREDIT DEFAULT PROBABILITY
Nahla Nurusshafa, Rofikoh Rokhim

Universitas Indonesia


Abstract

Bank and Non-Bank Financial Institutions that are engaged in loan services are required by regulators to control risks and at the same time have mechanisms in place to mitigate these risks. The Indonesian Financial Service Authority (Otoritas Jasa Keuangan-OJK) issued regulation number 1 POJK.05 concerning risk management of Non-Bank Financial Institutions. Whereas Bank Indonesia previously issued Regulation No. 11/25 / PBI / 2009 as an effort to control the credit risk of finance companies. The implementation of these two recent regulations present an interesting research puzzle, particularly with regard to how micro and ultramicro credit institutions are managed, as the regulations ultimately result in the elimination of the use of collateral for credit assessments. In light of these recent developments and the seemingly redundant role that collateral assessments play, it is thus important to review the additional and most recent factors that may cause unsecured credit from ultramicro credit institutions. The sample used within this study involved 949 pre-prosperous women who were Mekaar customers of PT Permodalan Nasional Madani (PNM). This sample represents 34 Mekaar operational areas in Indonesia. We divided the data into two data groups, namely 258 customers including within the default category and 691 customers within the non-default category. By using the probit estimation method, this study shows the probability of default on loan payments at Mekaar. The results indicate that the time period of the loan, the loan cycle, age, and marital status of the loan recipient, affects the probability of default, whilst the credit amount was not found to significantly affect the probability of default.

Keywords: credit scoring, microfinance, probit, loan repayment, probability to default

Topic: Finance

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/bnrGjLmJwafH

Conference: The 3rd International Seminar of Contemporary Research on Business and Management (ISCRBM 2019)

Plain Format | Corresponding Author (Nahla Nurusshafa)

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