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This study focuses on the supply chain of fuel products which known as Bahan Bakar Minyak (BBM) of PT. Pertamina (Persero), as state-owned enterprises in energy sector that has an obligation to provide fuel for all locations in Indonesia. With the complexity of the distribution lines where more than 70% of fuel supply are very dependent on refineries as the location of the main supply sources and the main modes of transportation by sea, the problem of variability in supply and demand is a the challenge in maintaining the stability of service to consumers. Therefore, inventory levels and improvements in terms of distribution path are very important. This study designed a probabilistic model that considers variability in supply and demand for safety stock determination so that the optimal fuel stock levels can be identified in each of the main fuel storage locations in Indonesia. The results of this study are the optimal national fuel inventory stock levels which consider the demand and supply variation.