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Investigating Factors to Support Electric Scooter Uptake: The Case of Bandung City
Simon Shepherd, Tryas Praesha, Chandra Balijepalli, Muhammad Farda

Fakultas Teknik Sipil dan Lingkungan Institut Teknologi Bandung & Institute for Transport Studies University of Leeds


Abstract

The negative impact of air pollution resulted from transportation sector gives a strong signal to many countries, including Indonesia, in order to deliver less polluting and more energy efficient modes of transport. Indonesia is the one of the highest greenhouse gas emitters in the world with progressive growth of gasoline cars and motorcycles sales over the years. Indonesian government has identified the problem and has been planning to support the implementation of Electric Vehicles (EV). One new local electric scooter manufacturer named GESITS has been developing the electric scooter in response to the Indonesian government-s plan of vehicle electrification. The question then arises as to what sort of policy required to foster the electric vehicles introduction to the market and to make the uptake self-sustaining. This study reports on system dynamics model-based study of factors which may influence demand for electric vehicles with Bandung City as the study area. The core of this paper is system dynamic model, which enable us to identify significant factors to get successful diffusion of Electric Scooters taking into account the complexity of several interrelated elements. The model used in this study builds on system dynamic work by Struben and Sterman (2008) and extends it with similar approach done by Shepherd et al (2012) to allow analysis of the Bandung market. This study contributes to past literature since none of them studied the diffusion model for electric scooters. We show that certain attributes such as price and range have a decent impact on take-up under business as usual case if we set them as dynamic value that affected by cumulative experience instead of fixed value, while subsidies have little impact on take-up. We introduce a conditional marketing scenario and tests the impact of policies such as removal of fuel subsidies and instead adding a fuel tax on gasoline motorcycle, as well as impact of vehicle attribute factors such as charging method to tip the market into successful trajectory. This study explored the sensitivity of the results to assumptions on reference rate of social exposure, average scooter life, and word of mouth. The results of this study have significant policy implications that will benefit policy makers

Keywords: electric scooter, system dynamics

Topic: EV Socio-Economical Impact

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/eZajy697m8xY

Conference: The 6th International Conference on Electric Vehicular Technology (ICEVT 2019)

Plain Format | Corresponding Author (Tryas Agung Praesha)

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