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Estimating the uptake of electric motorcycles in Bandung city using discrete choice modelling methods
Muhammad Farda, Simon Shepherd , Chandra Balijepalli, Romain Crastes dit Sourd, Tryas Praesha, Harun Alrasyid Lubis

Institute of Technology Bandung
University of Leeds


Abstract

Transportation sector has been the main contributor to greenhouse gas emissions globally and is more significant in emerging economies where the vehicle growth is very high. Immediate as well as long term strategic measures need to be developed and implemented to tackle the growing problem. Indonesia is a country with high vehicle population particularly dominated by gasoline motorcycles. The Indonesian government has acknowledged the problem and been formulating policies to support vehicle electrification as the way ahead. A joint Indonesian industry and research institution has been designing an electric motorcycle to promote the policy on vehicle electrification. However, the question emerges whether electric motorcycles can compete with gasoline motorcycles in Indonesia. This study assesses the uptake of electric motorcycle in Indonesia, particularly in Bandung city which is the 3rd most populous city in the country. This study designed a bespoke stated preference survey questionnaire to capture the preferences of the users and analysed data using discrete choice methods. In particular, three models, namely multinomial logit, mixed logit and hybrid logit are used to assess the share of electric motorcycles. This study contributes to the literature by adding new charging methods, namely plug-in and battery swap, either at home / office parking or charging station. In addition, this study measures the importance of electric motorcycle attributes, such as purchase price, operational cost, maximum speed and range per charging, and estimates the marginal willingness to pay. An understanding on factors influencing electric motorcycle uptake will be beneficial for manufacturers to improve the performance of electric motorcycles. Moreover, the policy makers will also benefit by knowing which aspects of electric motorcycle they need to support for it to reach a high penetration. The outcomes of choice models feed into a system dynamic diffusion model which considers broader factors affecting the electric motorcycle uptake over a period of time which is presented in a separate paper.

Keywords: Electric Motorcycle, Choice Modelling, Stated Preference

Topic: EV Socio-Economical Impact

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/gpAPCfBhXknZ

Conference: The 6th International Conference on Electric Vehicular Technology (ICEVT 2019)

Plain Format | Corresponding Author (Muhammad Farda)

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