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THE EFFECT OF INTERNAL BANKING VARIABLE AND MACROECONOMIC VARIABELS ON SYSTEMIC RISKS IN INDONESIA
AULIYA ULFA RAHMAH; RUDI PURWONO

FAKULTAS EKONOMI DAN BISNIS UNIVERSITAS AIRLANGGA


Abstract

The 1997 East Asian Financial Crisis and the 2008 Global Financial Crisis make systemic risk one of the focuses of research that continues to grow and makes the financial sector the center of analysis. The relationship between financial institutions can cause rapid spread of liquidity, insolvency, and losses experienced by an institution due to the spillover effect. The banking crisis is one of the sources of the financial crisis. This study attempts to analyze how the influence of bank-s internal variabels and macroeconomics on systemic risk. Measurement of risk contribution uses the conditional value-at-risk (CoVaR) model of Adrian dan Brunnermeier (2016). The results of the study show that there are influences between internal banking and macroeconomic variabels on systemic risk in Indonesia. Liquidity, leverage, and ROA have an effect on and are positively related to systemic risk, but in this case the ROA variabel does not significantly influence while the deposit and size variabels significantly influence and are negatively related. The results of this study refute the doctrine of "Too Big To Fail" which has been valid. In macroeconomic variabels, namely the exchange rate and interbank money market interest rates (PUAB) have a positive relationship with the economic situation of a country that will affect the performance of the financial system in the country

Keywords: Systemic Risk; Delta-CoVaR; Banking

Topic: Modeling, Simulation and Optimization

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/r8bkQAJYw4KU

Conference: International Conference on Sustainable Environmental Development and Economical Growth (ISEDEG 2019)

Plain Format | Corresponding Author (M Khoerul Mubin)

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