Indonesia Conference Directory

Corresponding Author
Irwanda Wisnu Wardhana

Institutions
the Indonesia Fiscal Policy Agency

Abstract
Prominent economists have diagnosed a growth trap problem that has hindered Indonesia from optimum economic development. For years, the economic growth rate has stuck at five percent. Furthermore, there is growing concern that Indonesia is experiencing premature deindustrialization. The terminology refers to a situation when the contribution of the manufacturing sector is declining and is lower than the services sector; before a country achieved a high-income status. This study aims to suggest strategic options to deal with the growth trap and the premature deindustrialization by optimizing opportunities offered by the global value chain practices. It will utilize the following tools of the strategy-formulation analytical framework. The Competitive Profile Matrix will compare the competitiveness of Indonesia and its rivals. In addition, the Grand Strategy Matrix to evaluate the competitive position and market growth among relevant countries. Finally, the Quantitative Strategic Planning Matrix (QSPM) will be employed to determine strategies to exploit global value chain opportunities. Suggested strategies from this research will be beneficial for policymakers to lay out policy proposals and actions.

Keywords
global value chain, growth trap, premature deindustrialization, strategy

Topic
Business Strategies on GVC Participation

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/FYbQHDw64azA

Corresponding Author
Miftakhul Jannah

Institutions
a) Politeknik Statistika STIS, Jalan Otto Iskandar Dinata 64 C, Jakarta Timur
b) Politeknik Statistika STIS, Jalan Otto Iskandar Dinata 64 C, Jakarta Timur

Abstract
In Indonesia, the increase in GDP of the Creative Economy from year to year indicates that there is good potential from creative economic sector in increasing the growth of the national economy. Judging from its contribution to National GDP, during the 2010-2016 period, the creative economy contributed an average of 7.45 percent to national GDP. However, until now the development of the creative economic sector has still not been able to reach the targets set by Badan Ekonomi Kreatif. GDP can be measured using three approaches, namely production, income and expenditure approaches. This research will focus on the production value approach. The purpose of this study is to know the general condition of the Indonesian creative industry and analyze the influence of input factors and ICT on the production value of Indonesias creative industry in 2012 -2015 using the panel data regression, FEM with SUR. The results showed that the ICT development index, labor, fuel, imported raw materials, machinery, the number of businesses with capital facilities had a positive and significant effect on the production value of the Indonesian creative industry, while the export value had no significant effect and had a positive relationship. Thus, to accelerate the GDP growth of the Creative Economy, it is necessary to carry out policies related to HR by increasing employment, improving the quality of education in Indonesia, mobilizing creative economic entrepreneurs to innovate and improve their technological capabilities, provide capital facilities to creative industries, and increase the use of machinery to speed up the production process.

Keywords
Creative Industries, ICT, Fixed Effect Model, Production Value

Topic
Business Strategies on GVC Participation

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/TA3HnrVdypWq

Corresponding Author
Hindun Hindun

Institutions
UIN Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta, UIN Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta, Universitas Batanghari, Jambi

Abstract
As a nation that has a variety of regional languages, the local wisdom contained in each culture can be manifested in cultural products. "Jogist Store Yogyakarta" is one of the home industries that produce T-shirts that are designed with images and writings that elevate local wisdom. This study aims to find out the text messages as outlined in the form of drawings and writings contained in Jogist t-shirts in upholding local culture. The random sampling technique used in this study focuses on seventeen t-shirts that will be reviewed by text messages so as to facilitate researchers in revealing the results of their descriptions. Mix methods are directed at quantitative techniques (not all data, only 17 T-shirts) and descriptive research results as qualitative research. Interviews with Jogist store founders were also conducted by researchers to strengthen this research. The results showed that there was an outer code-mixing in English with ten data numbers, and inner code-mixing in the Javanese language with a total of seven data. Text message in T-shirts Jogist Store Yogyakarta with the theme Love Jogja, Javanese Jokes, Entrepreneur Jokes, and the latest are Hijrah themed t-shirts.

Keywords
Jogist T-Shirt, Product Commodity, Local Wisdom

Topic
Human Capital Development Strategies

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/AETQnp2tqPWw

Corresponding Author
Dwi Wahyuniarti Prabowo

Institutions
Center for Domestic Trade Analysis, Trade Research and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade

Abstract
Inter-island trade data becomes one of the bases to formulate policy recommendations to maintain price stability and reduce price disparity across regions in Indonesia. However, inter-island trade data still not well recorded and managed. The purpose of this analysis is to measure the performance of the inter-island trade data collection process by Ministry of Trade and to identify problems of data collection. Important Performance Analysis (IPA) is utilized to measure the performance of inter-island trade data collection and Likert Scale is used for problems identification. The study found that in terms of importance is at the level of 3,25. While in terms of performance is at the level of 4,35. It can be interpreted that the level of performance is better than the level of importance, so in other words the process of inter-islands data collection is relatively effective. Meanwhile, the main problem in inter-island trade data collection are the lack of coordination between Ministries/Agencies, the policy that has not been well socialized, and there is no comprehensive format of inter-island trade data collection. For this reason, coordination and synchronization and further agreement is needed to develop a comprehensive inter-island trade database, and creating format of data collection.

Keywords
Inter-island Trade, Database, Trade

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/yp8uTMHfmEjt

Corresponding Author
Muhammad Rizal Taufikurahman

Institutions
(a) Trilogi University, Jl. Kampus Trilogi No.1 TMP Kalibata, Jakarta, 12760, Indonesia
*mrizalt[at]trilogi.ac.id
(b) Institut Bisnis dan Informatika Kwik Kian Gie, Jl. Yos Sudarso Kav 87 Sunter, Jakarta, 14350, Indonesia

Abstract
At present, the world economy is in uncertainty. One reason is that two economically large countries, namely the United States (US) and China are in conflict and beat the drums of trade war. Relations between the two countries are increasingly heating up after President Trump officially started a trade war against China on July 6, 2018. This is indicated by the policy of US applying tariffs on a number of Chinese products, and then responded very quickly by China by implementing a reply tarriff. The aim of this study is to analyze the economic consequences of the US-China trade war for Indonesia and Indonesias strategies to respond to the trade war. The analytical method used is the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model. The results of the analysis show that the consequences or impact of the US-China trade war on the performance of macroeconomic indicators such as investment and consumption increased by 0.02% and 1.13%, respectively. Its just that for the added value obtained it decreases by 0.02%. This condition resulted in a decreasing of the national aggregate output amount to 0.01%. The declining in national output came from the decreasing in output in several industries such as the textile and textile products industry, yarn industry, apparel industry, and pulp and paper industries which were 2.11%, 1.61%, 1.32% and 0.36%, respectively. Some short-term strategies that need to be done are increasing export competitiveness, encouraging export-oriented industrial productivity, expanding and strengthening domestic and world markets, and controlling the amount of imports. Long-term strategies include the need to improve the quality of human resources in the trade and industry sectors, labor productivity, utilization of the results of research and development, and optimization of training and education institutions.

Keywords
economic consequences; strategies; US-China trade war; GTAP analysis

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/AeGKk3CrtuxY

Corresponding Author
Devina Cieny Juventia

Institutions
Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry Of Trade
*devinacieny[at]gmail.com

Abstract
Indonesia-Bangladesh agreed to make a Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) at the 2017 IORA Summit. Both countries need to see the possibility of this PTA. This study aims to review the economic impact of PTA and arrange indications of requests/offers to be negotiated. The methods used are trade indicators including the trade balance, the main export-import products, Revealed Comparative Advantage, Trade Complementary Index, and Partial Equilibrium to determine the cost and benefits of the agreement. The results of the analysis based on the Partial Equilibrium simulations show that the reciprocal decline in import tariffs between the two countries will increase Indonesias export by USD 286,3 million, meanwhile Indonesias import will increase by USD 79,1 million. Both countries will obtain welfare in the form of consumer surpluses, for Indonesia amounting to USD 5.2 million and Bangladesh USD 12.0 million. Potential loss of Indonesias revenue was due to a reduction in tariffs of USD 6.9 million and potential loss of Bangladeshs revenue of USD 159.2 million. We suggest for the initial stages of trade cooperation between Indonesia and Bangladesh it is suggested in the form of PTA with an indication of Indonesias requests of 145 post tariffs and offers of 180 post tariffs.

Keywords
Partial Equilibrium, PTA, Request/Offer

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/cM6ZvQAhdxXB

Corresponding Author
Krismanti Tri Wahyuni

Institutions
Politeknik Statistika STIS

Abstract
Trade is the most important sector that provides the largest contribution in the services sector in Indonesia. This sector has grown rapidly in the past decade with the modern way of trading because of the influence of online systems. This study aims to determine the influence of trade and human capital in this digital era on the Indonesian economy and to find out whether labor productivity convergence occurs in Indonesia, and to find out factors that accelerate convergence. The analytical method used is dynamic panel data with the GMM First Different approach. This study shows that sigma convergence occurs in Indonesia based on the variation coefficient of the dependent variable. Absolute beta convergence and conditional beta convergence also occur during the study period, indicated by the dependent variable lag coefficient that is significant and less than one. Exports and imports between countries and between regions are proxy trade variables, while internet use and long school expectations are proxy variables for human capital. Physical capital (proxied by using district/city and provincial capital expenditures) and human capital, overseas exports, inter-regional exports and inter-regional imports have a positive effect on labor productivity in Indonesia, and increase the convergence rate so that the time needed to cover the gap will be more short.

Keywords
human capital, trade, convergence, labor productivity, dynamic panel data

Topic
Human Capital Development Strategies

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/2hWb4faLdUgC

Corresponding Author
Subkhan Rojuli

Institutions
Center for Research and Development of Educators and Education Personnel Education Citizenship and Social Sciences, Ministry of Education and Culture of Indonesia

Abstract
The purpose of the research is to gain a description and explanation of the causal relationship between observational learning in industrial work practice and soft skills, specifically the communication skill and problem-solving skill. Based on the purpose, the research employed the explanatory survey method. To test the hypotheses in this research, Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) was used. The research sample consisted of 423 twelfth grade Accounting Department students of state vocational high schools in Tangerang Regency who have completed their industrial work practice or internship. The sample was taken with random sampling technique. The instrument used to gather data was a questionnaire whose validity and reliability were tested using SPSS. The results of the research proved that observational learning has a direct effect on communication skill, and communication skill has a direct effect on problem-solving skill. Observational learning has an indirect effect on problem-solving skill, particularly because of its relation to communication skill. An important new finding of the research is the correlation between observational learning and communication skill and problem-solving skill. The new finding becomes a reflection for students regarding the weaknesses and strengths of observational learning modality that they have so that they can quickly adapt to the learning models in the industrial work practice

Keywords
observational learning, industrial work practice, soft skills, communication skill, problem-solving skill

Topic
Human Capital Development Strategies

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/my7Jfxd83aKV

Corresponding Author
Tommy Hendrix

Institutions
Research Center for Science Technology Policy and Management Innovation
Indonesian Institute of Sciences

Abstract
Culinary industries nowadays have significant meaning in enhancing capacity product diversification, to endorse economic development. This significant change appears in order to unlock the positioning of the product in the market through a variety of foods industries also R & D results often becomes a solution for fostering the movement of creative industries to appears. Food canning technology has enough potential to be developed as an appropriate production process, increased market share, attractive packaging that consumers preferred and an affordable price. For examples canned gudeg process appears when market demand needs something different in a variety of product, case study we used trademark Bagong with five taste as product industry as traditional foods from Yogyakarta. The purpose of this paper was conducted to find the efficacy strategy for launching product Bagong Canned Gudeg as one of the flagship products of traditional food that has a high taste derived from the recipes ancestral people of Yogyakarta based on the development of utilization of technology R & D results. The method performed with qualitative datas has been analyzed using Test Product Preferences (Organoleptic Test) to know consumers favourite level of Bagong Canned gudeg with 5 product variants on various attributes, market segmentation and In-depth interviews have engaged to the business canned gudeg owner and company management with 74 respondents from Bandung, Bogor and Yogyakarta area. The result indicates that based on the results of the marketing analysis that done, the products developed worthy of being marketed and received positive results from the consumers (respondents). The results of this study as a reference and recommendation product launching Bagong Canned Gudeg in the market with a variety of product and other flagship through variations and provisions with a similar product.

Keywords
Bagong Canned Gudeg, Case Study, Efficacy Strategy, Launching New Product, Traditional Fo

Topic
Business Strategies on GVC Participation

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/Uy2bj7B3Fpvz

Corresponding Author
Farida Rahmawati

Institutions
Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia
Jl. M. I. Ridwan Rais No. 5, Gambir, Jakarta 10110, Indonesia
*faridarahma13[at]gmail.com

Abstract
Along with the increasing in demand for air travel, growth of airlines and number of flights paths, Indonesias goal to become a maintenance center for large-scale aircraft needs to be supported by a good competitiveness of the airline maintenance industry. This study aims to identify the impact of import duty exemption on aircraft spare parts on the competitiveness and service export of the Aircraft Maintenance, Reparation, and Overhaul (MRO) industry including factors affected MRO competitiveness. In addition, this study aims to identify the problems encountered during the implemention of the policy, the types of aircratf parts to be exempted and the criterias for products to be eligible for exemption from import duties. The research method used in this study are qualitative and quantitative descriptive analysis, Porter five-force model and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). The results of the study showed that the import duty exemption policy increased MRO services from 30 percent to 49 percent during 2013-2017. Constraints in implementation are procedures and differences in customs areas where the longest is for bonded zones. Special customs policies for MROs as well as the exemption of import duties for goods related to MROs which 90 percen originating from imports will greatly encourage competitiveness which relies heavily on aircraft down time. The types of goods that need to be exempted from import dutties are consumable and repairable groups in both new and non-new capital goods categories.

Keywords
MRO, Porters Five Force Model, AHP, import policy

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/a6q8Wt4jPXJH

Corresponding Author
Eka Budiyanti

Institutions
Research Center, Expertise Body of Indonesian House of Representative
Nusantara Building

Abstract
Oral

Keywords
1, floor

Topic
2, Kompleks MPR-DPR RI
Jl. Jenderal Gatot Subroto, Jakarta Pusat 10270

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/XAzk76cHMNhd

Corresponding Author
Retno Wulansari

Institutions
a) Statistics, Politeknik Statistika STIS
Jalan Otto Iskandardinata No.64C 1 4, RT.1/RW.4, Bidara Cina, Jatinegara, Kota Jakarta Timur, Daerah Khusus Ibukota Jakarta 13330, Indonesia
*retnowulansari98[at]gmail.com

Abstract
In the last decade, there has been a shift occurs in the dominance of Indonesian cocoa exports from cocoa beans to processed cocoa. The shifting can be seen from 2010, at the time the government start to apply the export tax of cocoa beans. Free trade policy in ASEAN region has led to free-import tariffs on agricultural commodities as well as cocoa commodity. As a result, there was a decrease in export volume and an increase in the volume of Indonesian cocoa imports. This research aims to analyze the impact of the export tax imposition on cocoa beans and cocoa import tariff on the export volume of cocoa beans, cocoa paste, cocoa butter and cocoa powder. Because of the correlation between equations, the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) method is used. To enrich the analysis, researchers measured the Trade Specialization Index (ISP) and Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of cocoa beans, cocoa paste, cocoa butter and Indonesian cocoa powder. The results of SUR estimation show that the tax export imposition on cocoa beans negatively affects the export volume of Indonesian cocoa beans and positively affects the export volume of Indonesian cocoa paste, cocoa butter and cocoa powder. Cocoa import tariff positively affects on the export volume of cocoa paste, negatively affects on cocoa powder, and not significantly influencing the export of cocoa beans and cocoa butter. Researchers also found that the value of processed cocoa ISP and RSCA increased after the application of tax export of cocoa beans in April 2010. Processed cocoa RSCA values in 2010 averaged 0.56 to 0.7 in 2017, while the average ISP value was 0.76 to 0.78. Therefore, the government must continue to apply the tax export imposition on cocoa beans and imported cocoa tariff to increase the export volume of cocoa paste, cocoa butter and cocoa powder. In addition, the policy can also increase the competitiveness of Indonesian processed cocoa.

Keywords
Export Tax, Import Tariff, ISP, RSCA, SUR

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/npJ6UNrvELAz

Corresponding Author
endah ayu ningsih

Institutions
a) Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Indonesia;
(a*) ayuningsih.endah[at]gmail.com
b) Faculty of Economic and Business, University of Indonesia

Abstract
On June 23, 2016 held a referendum which resulted decision that United Kingdom or Britain determined to exit the European Union membership that we call Brexit. The exit of UK will absolutely impact UKs trade with its trading partner including Indonesia. In connection with this issue we conducted a study to evaluate the possibility for trade cooperation between Indonesia and the UK with assumption that UK had officially left the European Union. By having the Game Theory model, the best strategy for Indonesia is by forming FTA with UK. Meanwhile for UK, based on the simulation, the alternative in forming FTA with Indonesia is the dominant strategy with positive output. The trade cooperation implication is not too significant for UK, so to drive the trade cooperation must be initiated from Indonesia.

Keywords
Brexit, Computable General Equilibrium, Free Trade Agreement,Game Theory

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/YpzegxLAMFKU

Corresponding Author
Ni Putu Wiwin Setyari

Institutions
Economics and Business Faculty of Udayana University

Abstract
The role of the national tourism sector is increasingly important in line with developments and contributions given the tourism sector through the acceptance of foreign exchange, regional revenue, the development of the region, as well as in the absorption of investment and labor as well as business development in various parts of the region in Indonesia. The tourism sector contribution to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2018 has reached 6.0%, or IDR 890.43 trillion (World Travel and Tourism Council, 2019). While foreign exchange from tourism in 2018 reached IDR 220.93 billion and contributed to employment for 12,966 million, or approximately 10.3% of the total workforce in Indonesia. The impact of tourism sector development in fact not only in the form of foreign exchange due to increasing number of foreign tourists who come and absorb labor in sectors related to the tourism development. Studies by Chaisumpunsakul and Pholphirul (2017) showed a positive correlation between degrees of economic openness to the demand of foreign tourists in Thailand. Moreover, Thailand tend to experience a high level of trade with the countries of origin of tourists coming. Therefore, tourism is becoming an own international trade promotion path and vice versa merchandise trade flows can encourage foreign tourist arrivals. This shows the significance of the relationship that supports business opportunities due to the complementary relationship between the two (Santana Gallego, Ledesma Rodriguez, & amp; Perez Rodriguez, 2011). However, focus on those two relationship is still gets little attention, especially in the case of Indonesia. Hence the purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of tourism on the international trade in Indonesia, especially for the category of cultural products. Tourism experienced a significant growth from year to year, supported by a rich cultural heritage so as to facilitate an increase in creative industries such as fashion, culinary, arts, crafts, and entertainment. This is because the creative industry is predicted to become a new economic power in the coming years.

Keywords
tourism, internationa trade, cultural product, creative industry

Topic
Human Capital Development Strategies

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/a3PVrkLdMjb8

Corresponding Author
Kerub Henpra Gokniel

Institutions
Trade Analysis and Development Agency
kerubgokniel[at]gmail.com

Abstract
The utilization of retail market access in ASEAN as the result of the ASEAN Framework Agreement on Services (AFAS) negotiations is still considered low. Even though Indonesias retail services have potential to expand its business to ASEAN market which its economic growth and population continue to increase. This study used Hoekman Index analysis to see the level of openness of foreign retail services investment in ASEAN countries and SWOT analysis to find the strategies to utilize AFAS in order to increase Indonesias investment on retail industries in ASEAN market. The results of the analysis concluded that the level of investment openness of ASEAN member countries for foreign retail services is relatively open. However, Indonesia is less open than other ASEAN countries. Furthermore, based on EFAS / IFAS Analysis, Indonesias retail service sector has Opportunities and Strength as capital to develop its business in the ASEAN market with a strategy Progressive. As for other alternatives penetration strategies (entry mode) can be done, among others through full investment with foreign ownership of 100% to countries that have been fully open, joint venture, or sell Indonesian retail business master franchise to ASEAN countries, which is the easiest and least risky way.

Keywords
AFAS, SWOT, Hoekman Index

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/9mjHzkFqe2MD

Corresponding Author
sri wahyuni -

Institutions
Indonesian Center for Agricultural Socioeconomic and Policy Studies

Abstract
One of The Indonesian government effort to achieve the community food security, is through Toko Tani Indonesia (TTI) or the Indonesian Farmers Shop which is shorthen the supply chain beside stabilize the price and the supply of basic food. To get maximum achievement, indicators of achiefmen have been designed by the Food Security Agency - Ministry of Agriculture. To reach better performance of TTI, research on the implementation of the program were conducted during 2018 in Banten, West and Central Java Provinces with total samples of 43 TTI. The information were collected from secondary and primary data, than Analyzed qualitatively. This paper presented the performance of TTI in providing: 1) Easy Access; 2) Stability of the supply and Price; 3) Efficiency in Supply Chain and 4) Strategy for better TTI performance. The results: 1) TTI only provide 0.073 percent of the nationals rice need. 2) TTI cannot support the stabilization of rice prices, because of the very low contribution and no continues availability, eventhough the rice price in TTI in 2017 Rp9.450 compare to local market Rp10.700. 3) TTI activities had shorthen the supply chain of rice from 7 actors to 4 actors. 4) Strategy to Improve TTI performance includes programs socialization, consumer criteria, provide assistance for the program who monitore the product quantity and quality. The Policy implications: 1) Intensively socialize the program; 2) Define the consumers criteria; 3) Maintaint The continuity of the rice availability and 3) developed TTI in wider areas.

Keywords
TTI, supply chain, rice and Actors

Topic
Business Strategies on GVC Participation

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/cFJxRU46Bj2t

Corresponding Author
Filda Rahmiati

Institutions
a) Faculty of Business, President University
Jalan Ki Hajar Dewantara, Jababeka Cikarang 17550, Indonesia
*filda.rahmiati[at]president.ac.id
b) School of Business & Management, Bandung Institute of Technology
Jalan Ganesha 10, Bandung 40132, Indonesia

Abstract
Purpose- One way to create a competitive advantage by applying tourism value chain to coordinating all tourism players in providing distinct travel experience. However, past studies analyzing tourist experience explaining on tourism value chain activities is still limited. Hence, understanding Tourism Value Chain from a customer perspective is a valuable contribution in creating a value which aimed for competitive advantage. This study purpose at exploring and developing a model of tourism value chain activities for competitive advantage. Design, Methodology and Approach - Examining and matching the existing literature. To provide understandable in nature, and seeks to generate new interpretation in the field of tourism. This study tries to explore the three stages involve in tourism value chain activities experienced by tourist. Findings -This study created value chain activities for creating a competitive advantage model based on tourist perspective the tourism value chain activities start from pre-trip, trip, until post-trip and finally measured the performance along the chain. Future studies are expected in implementing tourism value chain activities model in specific tourism destinations (country) to measure the tourism experience with the aim on creating competitive advantage.

Keywords
Tourism Value Chain; Competitive Advantage; Tourist Experience; Tourist Perspective

Topic
Business Strategies on GVC Participation

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/GUWJNeVmjhYd

Corresponding Author
Kumara Jati

Institutions
(a)Indonesian Trade Promotion Center-Chennai-India, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia.
kumara_jati[at]yahoo.com

(b)Trade Analysis and Development Agency,
Ministry of Trade, Jakarta, Indonesia,
arie.mardiansyah[at]gmail.com

(c)Trade Analysis and Development Agency,
Ministry of Trade, Jakarta, Indonesia,
deckyparyadi[at]gmail.com

(d)Trade Analysis and Development Agency,
Ministry of Trade, Jakarta, Indonesia,
m.fawaiq[at]kemendag.go.id

(e)Trade Analysis and Development Agency,
Ministry of Trade, Jakarta, Indonesia,
ran.kemendag[at]gmail.com

(f)Trade Analysis and Development Agency,
Ministry of Trade, Jakarta, Indonesia,
halopopo[at]yahoo.com

Abstract
Rubber and palm oil are the two main export commodities that contribute to economic development in Indonesia. Specific trade policy has to be implemented when export commodity prices fluctuating or increasing or decreasing rapidly in the short period of time. This study shows that price movement aspect is very important to evaluate the trade policy. The results of the analysis using Autoregressive and Moving Average and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity/Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARMA-ARCH/GARCH) indicate that past price factors can be used to predict future prices. The Structural Time-Series Model (STSM) shows that the price of rubber and palm oil in 2020 is expected to be relatively stable and increasing. The relevant trade authorities need to maximize the public services related to the price predictions and upcoming policy in order to maintain export stability in the short and long terms so that it can be utilized to the greatest extent possible for development of Indonesia.

Keywords
Trade Policy, Rubber and Palm Oil Price, ARMA-ARCH/GARCH, Structural Time-Series Model (STSM).

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/7gPRXe3CkQ4L

Corresponding Author
Kumara Jati

Institutions
(a)Indonesian Trade Promotion Center-Chennai-India, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia.
kumara_jati[at]yahoo.com.

(b)Trade Analysis and Development Agency,
Ministry of Trade, Jakarta, Indonesia,
arie.mardiansyah[at]ymail.com.

(c)Trade Analysis and Development Agency,
Ministry of Trade, Jakarta, Indonesia,
leo_m_c_siagian[at]yahoo.com

(d)Trade Analysis and Development Agency,
Ministry of Trade, Jakarta, Indonesia,
ayuningsih.endah[at]gmail.com

(e)Trade Analysis and Development Agency,
Ministry of Trade, Jakarta, Indonesia,
sri.bako[at]gmail.com

Abstract
Understanding Non Tariff Measures (NTMs) can help to see any form of policy other than import tariffs. NTMs are generally enforced to protect domestic producers and consumers. Indonesia and India are the 4th and 2nd most populous country in the world. Therefore, these countries can be an interesting subject to see how NTMs are implemented. The Normative Juridical Analysis of NTMs found that India has applied more Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) policy to other countries, but Indonesia has applied more Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) policy to other countries. Although for bilateral trade, India has applied more Contingent Trade Protective Measures (CTPM) to Indonesia, but Indonesia has applied more Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) to India. The conceptual analysis of NTMs can help to understand how the bilateral trade between Indonesia and India can be increased. The relevant authorities should make specific trade development strategies and streamlining NTMs to give better ease of doing business between two countries.

Keywords
Bilateral Indonesia and India, Development Strategies of Trade, Normative Juridical Analysis, Conceptual Analysis of NTMs

Topic
Human Capital Development Strategies

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/ARdP7pxDrjJM

Corresponding Author
Dzulfian Syafrian

Institutions
Durham University Business School
Durham - United Kingdom

Abstract
Upgrading local companies is one of the key concerns of host government, especially in developing countries, in the age of Global Value Chains (GVCs). GVCs provide both opportunities and threats for host countries. One side, GVCs are the window of opportunities for local companies to catch up with the global leaders. On the other hand, GVCs could provide only limited impact on host country economic development by only seeking and exploiting the location advantages of host country. This paper aims to elaborate some common upgrading challenges faced by local companies when they engage in GVCs. Four main upgrading challenges are identified, namely: hyper-dependency on a single buyer, financial pressures, inconsistent industrial policy, and global competition. A single case study research is employed to illustrate these situations and how these challenges inhibit a leading and potential local company to grow and upgrade its position in GVCs. Astra International and its automotive subsidiaries (Astra) are chosen as the case study for number of reasons. First, Astra is originally from Indonesia. The company was established by Indonesians and locates most of all their businesses and value chain activities in Indonesia. Secondly, Astra is one of the largest Indonesian companies which has about 200 subsidiaries and employs over 200,000 workers. Thirdly, this study case gives very rich insights for other Indonesian local companies and government how to grow, manage and support businesses in the age of GVCs. Several implications for managerial strategy and policy recommendation are also discussed.

Keywords
Global value chains, Global production networks, upgrading strategy

Topic
Business Strategies on GVC Participation

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/vQYw7qKRTD6H

Corresponding Author
Nurmitra Sari Purba

Institutions
a,b) STIS, Politechnic of Statistic,,East Jakarta, 13330, Indonesia

Abstract
Quantum dots (QDs) are colloidal semiconductor nanocrystals which have unique optical properties due to their three dimensional quantum confinement regime. According to MarketAndMarket report, the QDs market is estimated to grow from USD 2.57 Billion in 2018 to reach USD 8.47 Billion by 2023. The QDs market growth is mainly driven by the factors such as the increasing demand in high-quality display devices, growing implementation in numerous applications due to their miniature property, and rising adoption of energy-efficient and less or non-toxic in solar cells and photovoltaics. Based on data from 54 countries obtained from the World Bank, technology exports (US Dollar) have a positive and strong correlation with innovation variables, namely the number of journals and articles (0.8), resident patents (0.9) and non-resident patents (0.9). This study explores technology clusters through patent analysis. The aim of exploring technology clusters is to grasp competitors levels of sustainable research and development (R&D) and establish a sustainable strategy for entering an industry. 3914 patents are collected through scraping processes. This study uses the Text Statistics Mining method for text titles consisting of two phases: data preparation and data analysis phase. The data preparation phase uses the Text Mining method and the data analysis stage is done with statistics. Statistical analysis in this study used PCA combined with an unsupervised clustering algorithm, K-Means Clustering. The results of this study based on the Gap Statistics maximum value indicate 9 clusters are associated with fifteen terms in it can be used in information retrieval process.

Keywords
gap statistics, k-means++, pca, quantum dots, text mining

Topic
Business Strategies on GVC Participation

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/RDQchjraNBtb

Corresponding Author
Steven Raja Ingot

Institutions
a) Trade Analysis and Development Agency
b) IPB University
c) Trade Analysis and Development Agency

Abstract
The discussion of agricultural Export Restriction (ER) at the World Trade Organization (WTO), which is a mechanism to temporarily stop the export of agricultural product that aims to prevent food shortages in exporting countries currently negotiated intensively. However, as a net importer of agricultural products and the member of G33 countries, Indonesia should address the ER policy because it has the potential to increase prices and threaten food security in G33 member countries. This study uses a descriptive qualitative statistical to determine Import Dependency Ratio (IDR) and Self-Sufficiency Ratio (SSR) for five imported main agricultural products by G33 countries such as rice, corn, soybean, wheat, and horticulture then using CGE Analysis using GTAP ver.9 to analyze the impact of agricultural product export restrictions on macroeconomic and sectoral indicators. Based on IDR and SSR it can be concluded that almost all G33 countries rely heavily on wheat imports, as many as 36 countries depend on imported wheat with IDR values varying between 70% - 215%. On the other hand, several G-33 countries have a fairly good level of fulfillment of consumption from domestic production (SSR) / more than 80%. Moreover, based on the GTAP calculation on the Indonesia case, export restrictions will have a negative macroeconomic impact on Indonesia. However, sectorally Indonesian farmers/producers can take advantage of the impact of the export restriction policy as an opportunity to increase production.

Keywords
export restriction, CGE, self sufficiency, import dependency

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/gF9KNnp7zTYa